[Middle East Watch #06] Iran–Israel Ceasefire: A Turning Point or Just a Pause?

- June 25, 2025

Did the Iran–Israel 12-day conflict truly end? Following Trump’s brokered ceasefire, this article analyzes military posture, regional reactions, and whether real peace is possible in the Middle East.

A symbolic image showing Iranian and Israeli soldiers facing each other in a tense standoff, representing the fragile ceasefire after 12 days of conflict.

1. Introduction – The End of War or Start of a Pause?

In June 2025, the Iran–Israel conflict captured global attention as it escalated toward full-scale war. Drone strikes, missile salvos, and retaliatory attacks defined 12 intense days. Then, on June 24, former U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire. But does this mean true peace, or merely a pause in hostilities?

2. Trump's Mediation – A Surprise Return to Diplomacy

Trump reentered the geopolitical stage as an unofficial mediator. Following U.S. preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and a cycle of retaliations, he urged both nations to accept an unconditional ceasefire. While the announcement was made, no formal treaty was signed, leaving the deal's permanence in question.

3. Israel's Suspicion and Military Readiness

Israel remains skeptical. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated, "Ceasefire isn't our goal; neutralizing Iran's nuclear threat is." Israel has not relaxed its military posture and retains its "silent strike" capability.

4. Inside Iran: Silence, Control, and Cracks

Iran accepted the ceasefire but imposed strict media controls. Internet blackouts and state-run narratives have prevented open discussion. Meanwhile, insider reports suggest tension within the Revolutionary Guard over air defense failures.

5. Voices of Dissent – Calls for Regime Change

Opposition leaders abroad, such as Maryam Rajavi (NCRI) and Reza Pahlavi, interpreted the ceasefire as a sign of regime weakness. They called for internal uprisings and international support for regime change, hinting at renewed resistance from within Iran.

6. Global Responses: Mixed and Measured

UN and EU praised the ceasefire, calling it a "step toward peace." However, China and Russia remained silent, while Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE began reevaluating military alliances, signaling the fragility of regional stability.

7. Could the Conflict Ignite Again?

Experts argue this ceasefire is temporary. No nuclear agreements have been made, and cyber warfare continues. Without institutional mechanisms or international guarantees, the situation remains volatile.

8. Conclusion – A Ceasefire, Not Peace

The 12-day conflict may have paused, but underlying hostility and strategic mistrust endure. True peace requires more than diplomatic gestures – it demands structural change, verified disarmament, and regional trust-building, none of which have occurred yet.

9. FAQ

Q1. Was Trump’s mediation official?: A1. No. It was an unofficial intervention, with no legal standing or formal endorsement from the U.S. government.
Q2. Did hostilities fully cease?: A2. Major strikes stopped, but limited cyber and intelligence clashes persist.
Q3. Is Iran politically stable now?: A3. No. Internal divisions and regime pressures continue behind a tightly controlled media environment.
Q4. Did Israel accept the ceasefire terms?: A4. Israel conditionally accepted but reserves the right to resume military action if nuclear threats re-emerge.
Q5. Is another conflict likely?: A5. Analysts believe tensions could return within months if diplomatic progress fails.

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