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Showing posts with the label Iran Watch

[Iran Watch #13] The Supreme Leader's Throne – Who Will Rise When Khamenei Falls?

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  What happens after Khamenei? This in-depth report explores the rising contenders—from IRGC loyalists and Mojtaba Khamenei to exiled leaders like Reza Pahlavi and Maryam Rajavi. Iran's future may hinge on what comes next. 📌 Table of Contents Introduction – The Throne Without a Future Khamenei’s Health and Public Appearances – A Shrinking Figure The Three ‘Internal’ Successor Options Mojtaba Khamenei – The Shadow Prince External Contenders – From Exile to Power The IRGC's Power Leverage – Will the Military Decide? Public Sentiment – Legitimacy Crisis in a Young Iran FAQ – Iran's Next Leader Debate Conclusion – Succession or Showdown? 1. Introduction – The Throne Without a Future As Iran’s aging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei grows increasingly frail, questions of succession dominate both domestic whispers and international strategy rooms. The Islamic Republic, designed around the absolute authority of a single clerical leader, now ...

[Iran Special #01] When Iran Tried to Be North Korea – A Strategy Gone Wrong

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 Iran’s failed attempt to follow North Korea’s nuclear strategy led to Operation Midnight Hammer. Explore Tehran's greatest miscalculation. Table of Contents 1. Iran's Strategic Gamble 2. Why Iran Is Not North Korea 3. Proxy Warfare vs Isolation 4. Civil Society: Iran vs North Korea 5. Operation Midnight Hammer & Its Aftermath 6. Final Analysis – A Failed Imitation FAQ 1. Iran's Strategic Gamble The Iranian regime believed that following North Korea’s model—nuclear capability, repression, and deterrence—would guarantee survival. However, the June 22 launch of Operation Midnight Hammer by the U.S. proved this logic deeply flawed. Targeted airstrikes devastated Iranian nuclear sites, forcing Tehran into an unplanned ceasefire. 2. Why Iran Is Not North Korea North Korea is geopolitically isolated and holds little leverage in global energy or trade. Iran, by contrast, controls access to the Persian Gulf and the...

[Iran Watch #12] Iran’s Shadow Cabinet – Who Rules When the Supreme Leader Hides?

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 As Khamenei retreats from public view, Iran is ruled by a shadow cabinet of clerics, IRGC officers, and loyalists. Who really holds power in Tehran now? 📌 Table of Contents Introduction – When the Leader Vanishes The Deep State in Iran – More Than Khamenei Key Figures in the Shadow Cabinet The Role of Mojtaba Khamenei – Hidden Heir? Clerical Approval vs. Military Control Crisis Management Teams – Who Holds Real Power? Foreign Policy and Intelligence – The Invisible Hands Public Messaging and State Media Apparatus FAQ – Shadow Cabinet and Succession Questions Conclusion – The Regime Without a Face 1. Introduction – When the Leader Vanishes As Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei retreats to an underground command post amid escalating conflict and threats to his life, Iran is being governed by a clandestine network of advisors, clerics, and military officials—what many now call the “Shadow Cabinet.” This informal structure has long existed to protect con...

[Iran Watch #11] Reza Pahlavi: Exiled Prince or Iran’s Last Democratic Hope?

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Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last Shah, is emerging as a leading voice for democratic change. Can he unify Iran’s fractured opposition and become the symbol of a post-Islamic Republic era? Table of Contents Introduction – Who Is Reza Pahlavi? A Childhood in Revolution Exile, Identity, and the Shadow of the Peacock Throne The Shift to Activism and Democracy Criticism and Controversy: Can He Truly Lead? Hope or Nostalgia? Reza Pahlavi’s Role Today FAQ – Frequently Asked Questions Conclusion 1. Introduction – Who Is Reza Pahlavi? Reza Pahlavi is the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Shah, the last Shah of Iran, overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. For decades, he has lived in exile, oscillating between being a symbolic figure and a potential agent of change. But can an exiled prince truly become the beacon of democracy in a country ruled by theocratic power? 2. A Childhood in Revolution Born in 1960, Reza was just 19 when the...

[IRAN Watch #09] Iran Executes 3 on Spy Charges, Arrests 700 in Sweeping Crackdown

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Iran has executed three people accused of spying for Mossad and arrested over 700 others in a sweeping crackdown following its conflict with Israel. Rights groups warn of human rights violations, lack of due process, and growing repression under internet blackouts. Table of Contents Introduction Executions and Allegations Mass Arrests and Accusations of Mossad Links Judiciary Fast-Tracks Sentences International Concerns Over Due Process Information Blackouts and Repression Tactics Expert Analysis on Internal Strategy Conclusion Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Introduction Iran has executed three individuals accused of espionage for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency and arrested more than 700 others in a sweeping wave of detentions. The developments have triggered alarm among international human rights groups, with many warning that Tehran may be using recent tensions with Israel as a pretext for intensifying domestic repression. The crackdown fol...

[IRAN Watch #08] Maryam Rajavi and the NCRI – Iran’s Most Controversial Exiles Call for Revolution

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Amid a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict, Maryam Rajavi of the NCRI calls for Iranians to overthrow Supreme Leader Khamenei. Explore her controversial past, her vision for Iran, and the growing rift with Reza Pahlavi. 📌 Table of Contents Introduction – A Call Amid Ceasefire 1. Who Is Maryam Rajavi? 2. From MeK to NCRI – A Brief History 3. Why Is the NCRI Controversial? 4. The “Third Option” Vision 5. Influence and Limitations 6. Western Perception and Strategic Role 7. Rajavi vs Reza Pahlavi Conclusion – Hope or Hazard? FAQ Introduction – A Call Amid Ceasefire In the immediate wake of the Iran-Israel aerial war and a hastily brokered ceasefire on June 25, 2025, Maryam Rajavi emerged with a bold call: “Let the people of Iran bring down the dictatorship.” As the exiled president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), Rajavi’s timing was no accident. The pause in regional fighting created ...

[Middle East Watch #05] MAGA vs MIGA: Trump Calls for Regime Change in Iran After Airstrike

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 After a U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, President Trump introduces 'MIGA'—Make Iran Great Again—signaling a bold push for regime change.                                               Table of Contents Introduction Trump's Post-Strike Messaging: A Shift Toward MIGA Precision Strike and Political Fallout Regime Change Rhetoric and Historical Echoes Domestic Political Clashes: Trump vs. Massie What Does MIGA Mean for the Middle East? Conclusion: The Global Stakes of a Three-Letter Shift FAQ Introduction On June 22, 2025, one day after a U.S. precision airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump posted a striking message on his social media platform, Truth Social. Departing from his previous administration's cautious rhetoric, he directly advocated for regime change in Iran—declaring, "If the current Iranian...

[IRAN Watch #06] Iran’s Hormuz Blockade and the Next Global Oil Shock

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Iran’s parliament has approved a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a new global oil crisis. Explore the geopolitical and economic impact. Iran’s Hormuz Blockade and the Next Global Oil Shock 📌 Table of Contents 1. Introduction – A New Flashpoint in the Gulf 2. Iran's Parliamentary Vote to Block Hormuz 3. Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters Globally 4. Echoes of the Past: Revisiting the Tanker War 5. Global Oil Markets on Edge 6. How the US and Allies Might Respond 7. Scenarios: From Symbolic Act to Full Blockade 8. Conclusion – Oil, Power, and the Edge of War 9. FAQ 1. Introduction – A New Flashpoint in the Gulf In June 2025, tensions in the Middle East have taken a sharp turn. Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, the Iranian parliament made a bold and potentially world-altering move: voting to block the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil artery. This decision signals more than retaliation. It raises t...

[Iran Watch #05] Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Successors Amid Escalating Crisis

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 Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei names three successors while hiding in a bunker as Israeli strikes continue. The move signals fears of collapse and leadership vacuum.                                      Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Successors Amid Escalating Crisis Table of Contents Introduction The Secret Succession Plan Why It Matters Now Khamenei in Hiding Military Threats and Fordow Popular Unrest and Internal Stability What People Are Saying What Happens Next FAQ Related Posts 1. Introduction As hostilities between Israel and Iran intensify, reports have surfaced that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has secretly designated three possible successors in the event of his death. This rare revelation comes at a time when Iran is under heavy military pressure and its leadership is facing unprecedented threats from both Israel and...

[Middle East Watch #04] Trump Launches Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites: “A Spectacular Military Success”

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Trump orders a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan at 4:30 AM IRST on June 22, 2025. The attack, hailed as a “spectacular military success,” raises fears of retaliation and regional war.                                          Trump Launches Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites: “A Spectacular Military Success” Table of Contents Introduction U.S. Strikes on Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan Trump’s Statement and Strategic Message Key Personnel in the Situation Room Iran’s Response and Denial Why These Nuclear Sites Matter International Concerns and IAEA Position FAQ Conclusion Related Posts 1. Introduction On June 22, 2025, at approximately 4:30 AM local time in Iran (IRST), the United States launched a coordinated airstrike on three major Iranian nuclear facilities. President Donald Trump, in a televised address, declared the ...