[IRAN Watch #08] Maryam Rajavi and the NCRI – Iran’s Most Controversial Exiles Call for Revolution

Amid a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict, Maryam Rajavi of the NCRI calls for Iranians to overthrow Supreme Leader Khamenei. Explore her controversial past, her vision for Iran, and the growing rift with Reza Pahlavi.

📌 Table of Contents

• Introduction – A Call Amid Ceasefire
• 1. Who Is Maryam Rajavi?
• 2. From MeK to NCRI – A Brief History
• 3. Why Is the NCRI Controversial?
• 4. The “Third Option” Vision
• 5. Influence and Limitations
• 6. Western Perception and Strategic Role
• 7. Rajavi vs Reza Pahlavi
• Conclusion – Hope or Hazard?
• FAQ

Introduction – A Call Amid Ceasefire

In the immediate wake of the Iran-Israel aerial war and a hastily brokered ceasefire on June 25, 2025, Maryam Rajavi emerged with a bold call: “Let the people of Iran bring down the dictatorship.” As the exiled president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), Rajavi’s timing was no accident. The pause in regional fighting created an opportunity to redirect public focus toward internal regime change.

1. Who Is Maryam Rajavi?

Maryam Rajavi is a veteran Iranian opposition leader who has spent decades in exile. Born in 1953 in Tehran, she joined the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MeK) in her youth. After losing her sister to SAVAK (the Shah’s secret police), Rajavi became increasingly committed to political activism. Today, she resides in Paris and serves as the political face of the NCRI, a coalition of exiled Iranian groups pushing for the end of the Islamic Republic.

2. From MeK to NCRI – A Brief History

The MeK (Mujahedin-e-Khalq) was originally formed as an Islamic-Marxist group fighting against the Shah’s regime in the 1960s and 1970s. It initially supported the 1979 Islamic Revolution but quickly clashed with the new theocracy. Following violent conflict with Khomeini's government and mass executions of its members, the group fled Iran and later based itself in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s protection during the Iran-Iraq War. In 1981, the NCRI was established as its political umbrella.

3. Why Is the NCRI Controversial?

The NCRI and MeK remain controversial both within Iran and abroad. Until 2012, both were designated terrorist organizations by the U.S. and EU. Critics point to its secretive structure, intense loyalty to the Rajavi leadership, and a cult-like atmosphere in its camps. Supporters argue these are exaggerated claims promoted by the Iranian regime. Regardless, the group elicits strong reactions from Iranians, often viewed with suspicion even among opposition circles.

4. The “Third Option” Vision

Rajavi promotes what she calls a “third option”: not war, not appeasement—but democratic revolution from within. She envisions a secular, democratic, non-nuclear republic with gender equality, ethnic autonomy, and the separation of religion and state. Her platform appeals to Western sensibilities and has helped gain political traction in the EU and U.S., where the group has lobbied extensively.

5. Influence and Limitations

The NCRI’s influence in Western policy circles has grown, particularly after it revealed Iran’s secret nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak in 2002. However, its credibility inside Iran is limited. Many Iranians view the group’s alliance with Saddam Hussein during the war as unforgivable. Moreover, its military operations in the 1980s and 1990s caused civilian casualties, further alienating it from the Iranian public.

6. Western Perception and Strategic Role

Western governments have had an evolving relationship with the NCRI. Once blacklisted, it is now seen by some lawmakers as a viable alternative to Iran’s current regime. U.S. politicians from both parties have appeared at NCRI events. But intelligence agencies and human rights groups remain divided—acknowledging the group’s organizational discipline and information network, yet wary of its opaque internal structure and political rigidity.

7. Rajavi vs Reza Pahlavi

In the current geopolitical moment, two prominent figures are vying for the future of Iran’s opposition. Below is a comparative overview of Maryam Rajavi and Reza Pahlavi’s political visions and strategies:

Category	Maryam Rajavi (NCRI)	Reza Pahlavi
Leadership Origin	Exiled political leader, elected by the NCRI	Son of the deposed Shah of Iran
Governance Model	Secular Republic	Constitutional Monarchy (or transitional leadership)
Strategy	Organized revolution through a defined third option	Gradual reform through civil disobedience and unity
Support Base	NCRI members, MeK diaspora, some Western backers	Royalist circles, youth movements, global Iranian diaspora
Controversies	Past ties with Saddam Hussein, cult-like accusations	Association with the former monarchy’s repression
Stance on Religion	Separation of religion and state	Supports religious freedom but unclear on formal separation
Vision for Iran	Democratic, non-nuclear, decentralized republic	Free, sovereign Iran possibly with symbolic monarchy

Conclusion – Hope or Hazard?

Maryam Rajavi’s latest appeal underscores both the urgency and complexity of Iran’s opposition landscape. For some, she represents a courageous figure pushing for democratic transition. For others, she is a relic of a radical past with limited credibility. In an Iran besieged by external threats and internal dissent, whether the NCRI can truly mobilize mass support—or merely survive in exile—remains an open question.

FAQ

Q1. Is the NCRI still a terrorist organization?
No. The U.S. and EU removed the designation in 2012. Iran still classifies it as such.

Q2. Does Maryam Rajavi have support inside Iran?
Limited and controversial. Many Iranians distrust the group’s past actions and alliances.

Q3. Is the NCRI a cult?
Critics allege cult-like behavior, but the group denies this and claims democratic values.

Q4. What is the “Third Option”?
A strategy advocating peaceful, people-led regime change—neither military intervention nor appeasement.

Q5. Does the NCRI still maintain a military wing?
No. Since 2003, the group has publicly renounced armed struggle.

📚 Related Posts in the Iran Watch Series

• [Iran Watch #01] Navigating Sanctions and Economic Resilience
• [Iran Watch #02] Ali Khamenei: The Real Power Behind Iran's Global Moves
• [Iran Watch #03] Tehran on the Brink: The Human Cost of an Unofficial War
• [Iran Watch #04] “Khamenei is a Frightened Rat” – Reza Pahlavi Calls for Iran’s Final Uprising
• [Iran Watch #05] Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Successors Amid Escalating Crisis
• [Iran Watch #06] Iran’s Hormuz Blockade and the Next Global Oil Shock
• [Iran Watch #07] Iran’s Blackout Strategy – A Digital Curtain During War