[Middle East Watch #02] Why Did Iran Abandon Proxy Tactics? – The Unprecedented Nature of Its Direct Strike on Israel

In an unprecedented move, Iran launched a direct missile attack on Israel, abandoning proxy tactics. What triggered this shift, and what does it mean for regional stability? Full analysis and key takeaways in Middle East Watch #02.

On June 13, 2025, Iran shocked the world by launching over 200 missiles and dozens of drones directly at Israeli territory. This marked the first time since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979 that it engaged in a direct military assault on Israel — not through proxies like Hezbollah or militias in Syria and Iraq, but via its own IRGC arsenal. This unprecedented move raises a critical question: Why now?

Table of Contents

• 1. A Strategic Shift Decades in the Making
• 2. Why Now? Triggering Factors
• 3. A Message to the Region, Not Just Israel
• 4. The Risks of Direct Engagement
• 5. International Implications
• 6. FAQ – Key Questions Answered

1. A Strategic Shift Decades in the Making

For decades, Iran has relied on asymmetric warfare — funding, training, and arming proxy militias across the region. From Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and Yemen’s Houthis, Tehran’s playbook was to maintain plausible deniability while bleeding adversaries. The direct missile and drone barrage launched on Israel represents a departure from this doctrine. It's not only a military escalation but a political gamble with global consequences.

2. Why Now? Triggering Factors

There are multiple immediate triggers. Chief among them was Israel’s "Rising Lion" strike that killed high-ranking IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists. Iran’s leadership likely concluded that restraint would only embolden Tel Aviv. Moreover, stalled nuclear negotiations, increased domestic unrest, and mounting international isolation left Tehran with fewer strategic cards to play — prompting a display of sovereign military might.

3. A Message to the Region, Not Just Israel

This strike wasn’t just a retaliation — it was a message to Gulf Arab states aligning more openly with Israel. By showing it can bypass proxies and strike with long-range precision, Iran is asserting its position as a regional power unwilling to be sidelined or contained. It's also testing whether American support for Israel has limits when it risks a broader regional war.

4. The Risks of Direct Engagement

By abandoning proxy mechanisms, Iran exposes itself to full-spectrum retaliation. This includes conventional counterstrikes, cyberattacks, and diplomatic isolation. It also risks pushing the region closer to NATO-aligned defense structures or even triggering a multilateral response involving Arab Gulf states. It’s a high-risk move that could strengthen Iran’s enemies as much as assert its power.

5. International Implications

The world is watching. The United States has been careful to distinguish between supporting Israel’s defense and endorsing preemptive escalation. China and Russia back Iran's right to self-defense while urging restraint. Oil prices have surged, and fears over a prolonged conflict disrupting energy markets are mounting. The direct strike could signal a new era where state-to-state warfare returns to the Middle East’s center stage.

6. FAQ – Key Questions Answered

Q1. Has Iran ever attacked Israel directly before?

No. Until now, Iran has always operated through proxy groups. This is the first direct strike by Iranian state forces.

Q2. What does this mean for Hezbollah and other proxies?

It doesn’t render them obsolete but repositions them as secondary tools. Iran’s direct strike sets a new precedent while its proxies remain active on other fronts.

Q3. Was this a declaration of war?

Not formally. But the scale and origin of the attack certainly breach previous thresholds and could provoke escalated Israeli responses.

Q4. Will Iran strike again?

Tehran has warned of further retaliation. It may adopt a hybrid approach — cyber, proxy, and direct attacks — depending on Israel's response.

Q5. How are global markets reacting?

Oil and gold have surged. Shipping and aviation in the Middle East are being rerouted. Inflationary fears are rising globally, especially in energy-dependent economies.

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[Middle East Watch #01] Israel’s Airstrike on Iran – 2025 Crisis Overview