[IRAN Watch #06] Iran’s Hormuz Blockade and the Next Global Oil Shock

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Iran’s parliament has approved a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a new global oil crisis. Explore the geopolitical and economic impact.


Strategic map illustration of the Strait of Hormuz showing key oil shipping routes and surrounding Gulf states – by Sosan Daily


Iran’s Hormuz Blockade and the Next Global Oil Shock

📌 Table of Contents

1. Introduction – A New Flashpoint in the Gulf

In June 2025, tensions in the Middle East have taken a sharp turn. Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, the Iranian parliament made a bold and potentially world-altering move: voting to block the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil artery.

This decision signals more than retaliation. It raises the specter of a new oil shock that could rattle the global economy.

2. Iran's Parliamentary Vote to Block Hormuz

On June 22, 2025, Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that the Majlis (parliament) had passed a resolution to formally block the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military action. Esmail Kowsari, head of the National Security Committee, stated that the final decision now rests with the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).


Map of the Middle East highlighting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, located between Iran and Oman



3. Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters Globally

The strait is only 33 km wide at its narrowest point, yet it carries over 25% of the world’s oil and 20% of global LNG. Nearly all oil exports from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE pass through this chokepoint.

Iran controls the northern half of the strait and could, in theory, block passage of large tankers — most of which pass through its territorial waters.

4. Echoes of the Past: Revisiting the Tanker War

Iran has previously threatened shipping in the strait, most notably during the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s. That era, known as the “Tanker War,” saw mines and missile strikes against oil tankers, but Iran has never before officially voted to blockade Hormuz.

This parliamentary resolution marks a historic first.

5. Global Oil Markets on Edge

If Iran follows through, oil prices are likely to surge. Some analysts forecast crude prices could spike to $150 per barrel or higher. This would have cascading effects:

  • Soaring inflation worldwide
  • Central banks raising interest rates
  • Risk of economic slowdowns in energy-importing nations

Countries heavily reliant on Gulf oil — such as South Korea, Japan, and India — would face the brunt of the impact.

6. How the US and Allies Might Respond

The U.S. has already deployed naval assets to the Gulf, stating it will defend “freedom of navigation.” Joint naval operations with allies such as the UK, France, and Japan are likely under consideration.

If Iran attempts to enforce the blockade with mines or missiles, a military response — potentially involving airstrikes or naval engagements — could follow swiftly.

7. Scenarios: From Symbolic Act to Full Blockade

Experts are split. Some believe Iran’s vote is a bluff, a symbolic move to pressure the West diplomatically. Others argue Tehran may go further — laying mines or harassing ships.

If implemented fully, the blockade could trigger a military standoff and global recession simultaneously.

8. Conclusion – Oil, Power, and the Edge of War

Iran’s vote to block Hormuz is more than just regional posturing — it’s a direct challenge to the world’s energy stability. Whether this becomes a flash in the pan or the start of a geopolitical earthquake depends on decisions made in the coming days.

The world now watches Hormuz with unease.

9. FAQ – Key Questions Answered

  • Q1. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so crucial?
    Because it carries 1 in 4 barrels of global oil trade and is a chokepoint for energy supply chains.
  • Q2. Why did Iran vote for a blockade now?
    In retaliation for U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities — it’s both a political signal and a strategic move.
  • Q3. What happens if the blockade becomes real?
    Oil prices may soar above $150, triggering inflation, higher interest rates, and a global slowdown.
  • Q4. Will this lead to war?
    The risk is growing. If Iran enforces the blockade militarily, the U.S. is likely to respond with force.

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