[Iran Watch #13] The Supreme Leader's Throne – Who Will Rise When Khamenei Falls?

- July 07, 2025

What happens after Khamenei? This in-depth report explores the rising contenders—from IRGC loyalists and Mojtaba Khamenei to exiled leaders like Reza Pahlavi and Maryam Rajavi. Iran's future may hinge on what comes next.

A digital composite image of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei fading into shadow, symbolizing the looming succession crisis in Iran’s leadership.

📌 Table of Contents

Introduction – The Throne Without a Future
Khamenei’s Health and Public Appearances – A Shrinking Figure
The Three ‘Internal’ Successor Options
Mojtaba Khamenei – The Shadow Prince
External Contenders – From Exile to Power
The IRGC's Power Leverage – Will the Military Decide?
Public Sentiment – Legitimacy Crisis in a Young Iran
FAQ – Iran's Next Leader Debate
Conclusion – Succession or Showdown?

1. Introduction – The Throne Without a Future

As Iran’s aging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei grows increasingly frail, questions of succession dominate both domestic whispers and international strategy rooms. The Islamic Republic, designed around the absolute authority of a single clerical leader, now stands at a dangerous crossroads: who will sit on the throne when Khamenei departs?

2. Khamenei’s Health and Public Appearances – A Shrinking Figure

Public sightings of Khamenei have grown rare. His voice trembles, his posture has wilted, and sources inside Iran whisper of repeated hospitalizations. The opacity of his health feeds speculation and heightens regime paranoia. Despite staged appearances, few are convinced that the current Supreme Leader remains fully in control.

3. The Three ‘Internal’ Successor Options

Within Iran’s current theocratic structure, three names surface as regime-aligned successors:

Alireza Arafi: A conservative cleric and Assembly of Experts member, favored by hardline scholars.
Ebrahim Raisi: Current president, once a frontrunner—yet rumored to be incapacitated after recent attacks.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei: Chief Justice and intelligence veteran, known for loyalty and silence.

All three operate within the system—but lack charisma, broad legitimacy, or clear military backing.

4. Mojtaba Khamenei – The Shadow Prince

Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son, holds immense backroom power. He manages key relationships with IRGC commanders, religious institutions, and digital propaganda arms. But dynastic succession is a red line for many Iranians. Installing him would risk triggering mass unrest and accelerating the regime’s collapse.

5. External Contenders – From Exile to Power

While Iran’s constitution excludes external actors, history teaches that regimes fall not only from within. Three symbolic figures dominate exile politics:

Reza Pahlavi: Son of the last Shah, advocating secular democracy. He gains traction among urban youth and diaspora Iranians.
Maryam Rajavi: Leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), representing the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK). Though controversial, she commands a loyal base and international network.
Hassan Khomeini: Grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Once seen as a reformist insider, now marginalized by hardliners.

These figures may not seize power directly—but could shape a post-Islamic Republic transition.

6. The IRGC's Power Leverage – Will the Military Decide?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) holds the real sword. With its control over Iran’s economy, nuclear program, and internal security, no successor can survive without its blessing. Some believe the IRGC may bypass clerical figures entirely and install a military-political leadership—effectively creating a junta.

7. Public Sentiment – Legitimacy Crisis in a Young Iran

Nearly 70% of Iranians are under 35. Most have no memory of the 1979 revolution. For them, theocracy is not sacred—it’s stagnant. Anti-regime protests, chants of “Death to the dictator,” and mass defiance during national funerals show a populace increasingly alienated from clerical rule.

8. FAQ – Iran's Next Leader Debate

Q1. Can Iran legally appoint a non-cleric Supreme Leader?
A: Technically no, but constitutional amendments are possible in extreme transitions.

Q2. Is Mojtaba Khamenei being groomed?
A: Evidence suggests yes—but regime fears backlash from hereditary optics.

Q3. Could the IRGC take full control?
A: Yes. A militarized council behind a symbolic cleric is plausible.

Q4. Do exiled leaders like Pahlavi or Rajavi have real support?
A: Among diaspora and urban youth, yes. Inside Iran, support is fragmented and hard to measure.

Q5. What role will foreign powers play?
A: Enormous. U.S., Israel, Russia, and China all have stakes in who controls post-Khamenei Iran.

9. Conclusion – Succession or Showdown?

Khamenei’s eventual departure may trigger not a smooth transition, but a multi-front power struggle. The Islamic Republic has no stable succession playbook. Whether the throne remains clerical, shifts to a military regime, or collapses under popular revolt is a question not just for Iran—but for global stability. What follows may reshape the Middle East for decades to come.

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